Beyond the 'Crisis State'

BY MALEEHA LODHI

INTRODUCTION

In the summer of 2010 it was the fury of the Indus river that unleashed itself on the country with devastating consequences. Engorged by heavy monsoon rain, the river system over-flooded and deluged large swathes of Pakistan-as much as a fifth of its land area-causing large-scale destruction and displacement.

20 million people were affected by this calamity. And this at a time when Pakistan was struggling to cope with economic and security crises and reeling from the blowback of nine years of war in neighbouring Afghanistan that started with the US led military intervention in 2001.

The floods exposed a paradox that lies at the heart of Pakistan’s predicament today: that of a weak state and a strong society. As the government machinery foundered in responding to the situation, civil society, the business community, ordinary citizens and even the media, organised efforts to help the flood victims.

The anaemic official response-notwithstanding the Army’s effective rescue and relief efforts­ contrasted sharply with the heroic actions taken by private charities and local communities.

What also mitigated the tragedy was the capacity for endurance of the afflicted, who set about rebuilding their homes and lives almost as soon as the waters receded and with remarkable dignity and an unfazed resolve to overcome the challenge.

Resilience has been part of Pakistan’s story from the country’s inception, obscured by the single-issue lens through which outsiders have lately viewed the nation. The prism of terror and extremism has deflected attention away from the strength and stability of its underlying social structures which have enabled the country to weather national and 10regional storms and rebound from disasters-natural and manmade.

Many foreign observers thought when the floods struck that this was one crisis too many which would finally tip Pakistan over the edge. But the country defied this doomsday prognosis as it had earlier ones.

While Pakistan has had to navigate multiple challenges, it has always been more than an entity that lurches from crisis to crisis. Its promising potential lies in a number of attributes: an able pool of professionals and technically trained people, a hardworking labour force, a growing middle class, an enterprising business community, an energetic free media, and a lively arts, literature and music scene. Pakistan’s cultural plurality and open society are sinews of its strength. It has a significant industrial base, an elaborate infrastructure of roads and communication links, a modern banking system, a large domestic market and a thriving informal economy- factors that have averted a national breakdown even when in the throes of severe financial crisis. Its economic problems are rooted in poor state management, not Pakistan’s economic fundamentals, which remain robust. It has man­ aged-in spurts-to achieve high rates of economic growth, not nearly enough to keep pace with an exploding population, but sufficient to invest the country with several features of a modern nation. Successive governments however have been unable to deploy these ingredients for success to unlock Pakistan’s potential. Instead poor governance, rule without law and short-sighted leadership have mired the country in layers of crises that have gravely retarded Pakistan’s progress and development.

It does not have to be this way. The country may yet escape its difficult first sixty-three years, resolve its problems and re-imagine its future. But doing so will need a capable leadership with the vision and determination to chart a new course.

This volume explores the path to a post-crisis state by identifying the policy responses that can bring about such an outcome. It is inspired by the belief that Pakistan’s problems are soluble and its challenges can be overcome. And that Pakistanis themselves must reclaim their country by extricating it from the numerous challenges it faces.

Usually, edited books emerge from conferences. This book is the product of a ‘virtual’ conference-in cyberspace-that led to a meeting of 11minds among some of Pakistan’s top practitioners and scholars, about the need to add a new dimension to the ongoing debate on ‘Whither Pakistan’. This collection offers a diversity of views and perspectives. But what binds all the distinguished contributors is their belief that Pakistan’s challenges are surmountable and the impetus for change and renewal can only come from within, through bold reforms that are identified in the chapters that follow.

The issues discussed in the book cluster around the themes of governance, security, economic and human development and foreign pol­ icy, underlining the complex intersection of domestic and international factors that have shaped if not determined the Pakistan experience.

In the opening chapter of the volume Pakistan’s leading historian, Ayesha Jalal, considers the country’s current predicament in the light of a troubled past. She describes how a national paranoia has taken hold of the country, and identifies the lack of a critical historical tradition as the root of the problem. Her chapter argues that Pakistan can change course, in a strategic sense and also in terms of recasting its rational and emotional framework, if its people are allowed to delve into their history with open mindedness. Award-winning novelist Mohsin Hamid represents the third generation of Pakistanis born after independence. His chapter offers an upbeat message of hope and sets out reasons for optimism about Pakistan. Its vastness, diversity, traditions of co-existence, and evolving democracy are identified as important assets. Furthermore, Pakistan has the resources to fund its own development and regenerate itself provided it chooses to increase its paltry levels of tax collection.

Dr Akbar S. Ahmed, author and anthropologist, seeks to establish that the nation’s founder and his vision are central to today’s debate about the nature and character of the Pakistani state. The debate has never been more intense between advocates of a modern, functional state, those demanding a theocratic state and still others urging a balance between the two. No voice is more important in this debate than that of Mohammad Ali Jinnah. Pakistan has yet to live up to the ideal set out in .Jinnah’s key speeches but his authority and legitimacy can still be used to translate this into reality.

My own chapter explores the intricate interplay between internal and 12external factors and examines Pakistan’s tangled political past of governance failures, patronage-dominated politics and missed economic opportunities. The country must overcome five fault lines to chart a new, hopeful course. Socio-economic changes of the past decade or so have transformed the dynamic between state and society, created a larger, more politically assertive middle class and engendered a stronger, more ‘connected’ society. Once politics catches up with these changes the foundation would be laid for a functional and responsive state.

The next two chapters focus on the role of the country’s most powerful institution, the military. Shuja Nawaz sets out the factors behind the Army’s repeated political interventions and wide footprint in national life. He examines its complex relations with the civilian sector and changing internal dynamics to argue that civilian supremacy should be the goal.

Saeed Shafqat explores whether the military’s hegemony may-or will-gradually give way to a party-led, representative system. He sees two paradoxical trends in the post-2008 election period: the continuity of the traditional political elite and the shift in the social composition of the military and civil bureaucracy. He concludes on a hopeful note by pointing to the emerging national consensus on restricting the political role of the military.

Turning to the role that ideology has played in Pakistan’s evolution, Ziad Haider argues that religion has been used for multiple purposes including nation-building and security objectives. This has produced a blowback that now confronts the country with an unprecedented challenge. Pakistan’s viability depends in large part on its ability to develop a new Islamic narrative that can be a force for progressive change. Dr Ishrat Husain served until recently as the Governor of the State Bank. His vast experience informs a detailed consideration of how the civil service can be reformed and economic governance improved, without which, he argues, even well-crafted policies cannot be executed. He advocates building both formal and informal ‘institutions of restraint’ to ensure a system of checks and balances that can provide the essential pillars of good governance.

Pakistan’s struggle against militancy and extremism is among its most daunting challenges. Award-winning journalist Zahid Hussain analyses how present efforts are at once containing and unintentionally incubating the militant threat and urges a number of measures to deal with the challenge more effectively and comprehensively.

Dr Meekal Ahmed is among Pakistan’s top economists and has worked in various positions in the Planning Commission and the IMF.

Pakistan, he reasons, needs a regime-change in economic policy-making and implementation of key reforms to place the economy on a viable footing and realise the country’s economic potential. Muddassar Mazhar Malik offers a private sector perspective on economic competitiveness.

He evaluates Pakistan’s potential from the angle of what gives or can give it a competitive advantage to position it in the global economy. In a forward-looking assessment he sets out the factors that need to be addressed to evolve a strategy for Pakistan to emerge as a successful economy.

The crisis in Pakistan’s energy sector is today the single greatest impediment to economic recovery. Ziad Alahdad investigates what it will take to turn this sector around. He argues that the lack of a coordinated policy has contributed to the problem. He shows how the right policy approach can help to address Pakistan’s seemingly insurmountable energy deficit and pave the way for economic revival.

Moeed Yusuf and Shanza Khan make the case that education is critical to Pakistan’s recovery. They argue that education, which lies at the heart of Pakistan’s challenges, should be regarded as a strategic priority not just a development objective. The next decade should act as a corrective period to put in place policies to ensure full education access to all. The authors enumerate both short and long-term measures that are required to achieve this.

Feroz Hassan Khan, a former Brigadier in the Pakistan Army relates the story of the country’s nuclear quest. He details how the development of a covert capability took shape in response to the competing threat from India over four decades and reflected the effort to address its severe security predicament. In explaining the role of nuclear weapons in Pakistan’s national security he argues that on at least five occasions since the mid-1980s a conventional war with India was averted.

Munir Akram focuses on the range of strategic challenges that 14Pakistan now faces. In a tour de force the internal threat from militancy, the country’s interests in Afghanistan, a pervasive challenge from India and post 9/11 relations with the US are all assessed from the perspective of Pakistan’s strategic decline as a consequence of multiple factors including economic weakness, domestic discord and strategic confusion. Akram brings his experience in Pakistan’s diplomatic service to bear on the critical question of how the country can reverse its political, economic and diplomatic marginalisation in regional and global power relations.

Internationally renowned author Ahmed Rashid examines the complex issue of Afghanistan against the backdrop of a faltering US-led war effort, NATO countries looking for the exits and Pakistan’s controversial policies. He assesses the possibilities for peace talks to end the long conflict and argues that Pakistan’s stance will be critical to the outcome: whether the region descends into chaos or moves towards a negotiated settlement that ensures an orderly withdrawal of Western troops from Afghanistan.

Turning to relations with India, Dr Syed Rifaat Hussain appraises in the final chapter how efforts to forge a durable peace between the nuclear neighbours have fared against the backdrop of their continued rivalry over Kashmir. Highlighting the fragility of the Pakistan-India peace process, he argues that lasting peace requires an amicable settlement of the Kashmir dispute. India’s rising influence as a global power and the Indo-US strategic partnership are not only aggravating Pakistan’s security dilemmas but also discouraging New Delhi from seeking durable rapprochement with Pakistan.

The concluding note sets out what needs to be done to address Pakistan’s systemic and fundamental challenges to set the country on to a course beyond a ‘crisis state’ and guarantee its long-term stability. It identifies the critical priorities on which a national consensus needs to be fashioned. It concludes that this is not possible without political will on the part of a leadership that is credible and seen to be pursuing goals regarded as legitimate by the wider public.